Living in Bolivian

Friday, June 03, 2005

Interesting Stuff

Many thanks to Dad for pointing out this article to me. It is timely, as I have just learned that my little brother is heading over to Iraq. He is in the Marines, and although we knew this day was very likely to come, it's sobering. I think of him as being so young, and I fear the randomness of the violence still reigning in Iraq.

There's a great travel guide / history book / political science / essay collection called the World's Most Dangerous Places, that I highly recommend. It's out of date the day it's published, by its very nature, but there is some interesting historical stuff about the Middle East. The Guide talks at some length about the relative risks associated with different activities, in part to justify the crazy risks the guys who contribute to this collection are willing to take. They make a compelling argument with respect to the diminished risk associated with combat in this day and age, but that would undoubtedly be a hard sell to the families who have lost their sons, daughters, brothers, husbands, etc. There's an old saying that the probability of anything happening is 50-50...either it will happen or it won't. I'm nerdy enough to point out that this clearly is untrue - no one would fly, drive, shower or swim if the associated risks occurred half the time the activity was undertaken. It feels true, though, and I suspect that it relates to the concept of control.

It is factually wrong, but I feel that I control what's happening when I drive my car. This is demonstrably untrue, in the sense that another vehicle could slam into me, my car could have a mechanical failure, etc. However, even when presented with unexpected danger, I have the opportunity to take evasive action or otherwise rely on my experience driving to safely avoid or minimize the situation. Because I have no military training, I don't know what steps one can take to minimize or avoid disaster in a war zone. The risks facing my brother and all the troops therefore seem completely uncontrollable, and thus it's scarier to me than a higher known risk. This isn't making as much sense as I had hoped. I'm sure I'll return to this topic once I have digested this information.

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